Make sure to spend a little extra and get the Denso brand coil. The cheap one don't last very long.
Short answer - it was the ignition coil. In the end - it serves as a reminder that just because a code (or lack of) seems to point to a specific component, you MUST diagnose. ECM costs $300 - $1000 including coding - a Denso ignition coil was just over $100.
Be sure to use a genuine Bosch from a reputable source, or OE from the dealer. DO NOT use a Chinese one from a big-box auto parts store.
Make sure the new coil is a good Bosch, Beru, or OE unit, not parts-store brand junk. I've seen plenty of bad coils out of the box.
I ended up getting a brand new Bosch ignition coil from German Autoparts for around $160 shipped with a few other small parts. This was around November last year.
Go Bosch, or Go Badly.
0,5l/100km less fuel consumption, consistent, and what is most important, my Golf was the only car that started by itself this winter at -30 C outside, among about 30 cars in our courtyard.
I highly recommend this one: It gives probably the hottest spark out there, is a direct replacement to oem coil and is not expensive (~$30).
It's Bosch KS with a turbo 5K coil. The turbo coil is known to work very well for 18+ PSI, and I am firing it earlier in the cycle than most, which should make the job of sparking easier.
Performance gains from only a coil, I don't know, probably none, however the car I have it in is completely stock in the engine department. As an addition to mods I think the coil is a good idea because it helps to smooth out these cases when mixture is out of stoich Maybe better throttle response.
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